Research

My general interest is statistical computing. Most of my work attempts to take advantage of the power of modern computing to solve real statistical problems. The area where I have devoted a lot of attention is the integration problem arising in Bayesian applications. Lately, my interest in statistics in sport has grown to consume a fair bit of my time, perhaps too much of my time.

Books:

• Albert, J.A., Glickman, M.E., Swartz, T.B. and Konig, R.H., Editors (2017). Handbook of Statistical Methods and Analyses in Sports. Chapman & Hall/CRC Handbooks of Modern Statistical Methods.

• Swartz, T.B. (2014). Introduction to Probability and Statistics, Second Edition. Pearson Learning Solutions.

• Evans, M. and Swartz, T.B. (2000). Approximating Integrals via Monte Carlo and Deterministic Methods. Oxford University Press.

Software for draws in highland dancing championships: Click here.

The following are a selection of publications:

• Guan, T. and Swartz, T.B. (2024). Acceleration and age in soccer. International Journal of Sports Science and Coaching, To appear.

• Cavan, E., Cao, J. and Swartz, T.B. (2024). NHL aging curves using functional data analysis. Under review.

• Wu, L. and Swartz, T.B. (2023). A new metric for pitch control based on an intuitive motion model. Under review.

• Epasinghege Dona, N. and Swartz, T.B. (2024). Causal analysis of tactics in soccer: The case of throw-ins IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 35(1), 111-126.

• Guan, T., Cao, J. and Swartz, T.B. (2023). Parking the bus? Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 19(4), 263-272.

• Wu, L. and Swartz, T.B. (2023). Evaluation of off-the-ball actions in soccer . Statistical Applicata - Italian Journal of Applied Statistics, 35(2), Article 2.

• Epasinghege Dona, N. and Swartz, T.B. (2023). A causal investigation of pace of play in soccer. Statistical Applicata - Italian Journal of Applied Statistics, 35(1), Article 6.

• Reyers, M. and Swartz, T.B. (2023). Quarterback evaluation in the National Football League using tracking data . AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, 107(1), 327-342.

• Tea, P. and Swartz, T.B. (2023). The analysis of serve decisions in tennis using Bayesian hierarchical models . Annals of Operations Research, 325(1), 633-648.

• Epasinghe Dona, N., Nguyen, R., Gill, P.S. and Swartz, T.B. (2022). Expected economy rate . Studies of Applied Economics, 40(1), 1-14.

• Peng, K., Clarke, D.C. and Swartz, T.B. (2022). Reyers, M. and Swartz, T.B. (2021). Bayesian approaches for critical velocity modelling of data from intermittent efforts. International Journal of Sports Science and Coaching, 17(4), 868-879.

• Wang, S. and Swartz, T.B. (2022). Moment matching adaptive importance sampling with skew-student proposals . Monte Carlo Methods and Applications, 28(2), 149-162.

• Guan, T., Nguyen, R., Cao, J. and Swartz, T.B. (2022). In-game win probabilities for the National Rugby League . The Annals of Applied Statistics, 16(1), 349-367.

• Thomson, J., Perera, H. and Swartz, T.B. (2021). Contextual batting and bowling in limited overs cricket. . South African Statistical Journal, 55, 73-86.

• Wu, Y., Danielson, A., Hu, J. and Swartz, T.B. (2021). A contextual analysis of crossing the ball in soccer . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 17(1), 57-66.

• Chu, D. and Swartz, T.B. (2020). Foul accumulation in the NBA . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 16(4), 301-309.

• Wang, S., Wang, L. and Swartz, T.B. (2020). Inference for misclassified multinomial data with covariates . The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 48, 655-669.

• Bailey, S.R., Loeppky, J. and Swartz, T.B. (2020). The prediction of batting averages in Major League Baseball . Stats, 9, 84-93.

• Swartz, T.B. (2020). Where should I publish my sports paper? The American Statistician, 74, 103-108.

• Silva, R., Guan, Y. and Swartz, T.B. (2019). Bayesian treatment of nonstandard problems in test analysis . Metron, 77, 227-238.

• Gill, P. and Swartz, T.B. (2019). A characterization of the degree of weak and strong links in doubles sports . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 15, 155-162.

• Wu, L., Chow-White, P. and Swartz, T.B. (2019). Net best-ball team composition in golf . Journal of Sports Analytics, 5, 169-179.

• Chu, D., Wu, L. and Swartz, T.B. (2018). Modified Kelly criteria . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 14, 1-11.

• Silva, R., Davis, J. and Swartz, T.B. (2018). The evaluation of pace of play in hockey . Journal of Sports Analytics, 4(2), 145-151.

• Beaudoin, D. and Swartz, T.B. (2018). A computationally intensive ranking system for paired comparison data . Operations Research Perspectives, 5, 105-112.

• Perera, H., Davis, J. and Swartz, T.B. (2018). Assessing the impact of fielding in Twenty20 cricket . Journal of the Operational Research Society, 69(8), 1335-1343.

• Silva, R., Guan, Y. and Swartz, T.B. (2017). Bayesian diagnostics for test design and analysis . Journal on Efficiency and Responsibility in Education and Science, 10(12), 44-50.

• Wu, S. and Swartz, T.B. (2017). Using AI to correct play-by-play substitution errors . http://www.sloansportsconference.com

• Swartz, T.B. (2017). Hockey analytics . Wiley StatsRef: Statistics Reference Online, 1-10.

• Swartz, T.B. (2017). Research directions in cricket . Handbook of Statistical Methods and Analyses in Sports. Chapman & Hall/CRC Handbooks of Modern Statistical Methods, 445-460.

• Swartz, P., Grosskopf, M., Bingham, D.R. and Swartz, T.B. (2017). The quality of pitches in major league baseball . The American Statistician, 71(2), 148-154.

• Silva, R., Perera, H., Davis, J. and Swartz, T.B. (2016). Tactics for Twenty20 cricket . South African Statistical Journal, 50(2), 261-271.

• Beaudoin, D., Schulte, O. and Swartz, T.B. (2016). Biased penalty calls in the National hockey league . The ASA Data Science Journal, 9(5), 365-372.

• Silva and Swartz, T.B. (2016). Analysis of substitution times in soccer . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 12(3), 113-122.

• Perera, H. and Swartz, T.B. (2016). Muralitharan and Sangakkara: Forging identity and pride in a small island nation . More than Cricket and Football: International Sport and the Challenge of Celebrity, Editors J.N. Rosen and M.M. Smith, University Press of Mississippi, 186-203.

• Perera, H., Davis, J. and Swartz, T.B. (2016). Optimal lineups in Twenty20 cricket . Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation, 86(14), 2888-2900.

• Davis, J., Perera, H. and Swartz, T.B. (2015). Player evaluation in Twenty20 cricket . Journal of Sports Analytics, 1(1), 19-31.

• Swartz, T.B., Gill, P.S. and Muthukumarana, S. (2015). A Bayesian approach for the analysis of triadic data in cognitive social structures . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, 64(4), 593-610.

• Davis, J., Perera, H. and Swartz, T.B. (2015) A simulator for Twenty20 cricket . The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 57(1), 55-71.

• Silva, R., Manage, B.W. and Swartz, T.B. (2015). A study of the powerplay in one-day cricket . European Journal of Operational Research, 244(3), 931-938.

• Hira, A. and Swartz, T.B. (2014). What makes Napa Napa? The roots of success in the wine industry . Wine Economic and Policy, 3(1), 37-53.

• Muthukumarana, S. and Swartz, T.B. (2014). Bayesian analysis of ordinal survey data using the Dirichlet process to account for respondent personality traits . Communications in Statistics: Simulation and Computation, 43(1), 82-98.

• Perera, H., Gill, P.S. and Swartz, T.B. (2014). Declaration guidelines in test cricket . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 10(1), 15-26.

• Swartz, T.B. and Arce, A. (2014). New insights involving the home team advantage . International Journal of Sports Science and Coaching, 9(4), 681-692.

• Yousefi, K. and Swartz, T.B. (2013). Advanced putting metrics in golf . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 9(3), 239-248.

• Swartz, T.B., Arce, A. and Parameswaran, M. (2013). Assessing value of the draft positions in Major League Soccer's Superdraft . The Sport Journal, 16, Article 9.

• Perera, H. and Swartz, T.B. (2013). Resource estimation in Twenty20 cricket . IMA Journal of Management Mathematics, 24(3), 337-347.

• Valero, J. and Swartz, T.B. (2012). An investigation of synergy between batsmen in opening partnerships . Sri Lankan Journal of Applied Statistics, 13, 87-98.

• Swartz, T.B. (2011). Bayesian clustering with priors on partitions . Statistica Neerlandica, 65(4), 371-386.

• Swartz, T.B., Tennakoon, A., Nathoo, F., Tsao, M. and Sarohia, P.S. (2011). Ups and downs: team performance in best-of-seven playoff series . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 7(4), Article 2.

• Gill, P.S. and Swartz, T.B. (2011). Stylometric analyses using Dirichlet process mixture models . Journal of Statistical Planning and Inference, 141(11), 3665-3674.

• Swartz, T.B. (2011). An investigation of equitable stroke control . Solicited Report to the Royal Canadian Golf Association; this study was influential in changing the equitable stroke control rule which is used by millions of Canadian golfers.

• Swartz, T.B. (2011). Drafts versus auctions in the Indian Premier League . South African Statistical Journal, 45(2), 249-272.

• Cook, V.J., Hu, X.J. and Swartz, T.B. (2011). Cox regression with covariates missing not at random. . Statistics in Biosciences, 3(2), 208-222.

• Bhattacharya, R., Gill, P.S. and Swartz, T.B. (2011). Duckworth-Lewis and Twenty20 cricket . Journal of the Operational Research Society, 62(11), 1951-1957.

• Beaudoin, D. and Swartz, T.B. (2010). Strategies for pulling the goalie in hockey. The American Statistician, 64(3), 197-204.

• Ghosh, P., Muthukumarana, S., Gill, P.S. and Swartz, T.B. (2010). A semiparametric Bayesian approach to network modelling using Dirichlet process priors . The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 52(3), 289-302. Simulated data used in Example 1 and WinBUGS code for Example 3 in the paper.

• Swartz, T.B. (2009). A new handicapping system for golf . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 5(2), Article 9.

• Swartz, T.B., Gill, P.S. and Muthukumarana, S. (2009). Modelling and simulation for one-day cricket . The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 37(2), 143-160.

• Treschow, M., Gill, P.S. and Swartz, T.B. (2009). King Alfred's scholarly writings and the authorship of the First Fifty Prose Psalms . Heroic Age, Issue 12, Article 3.

• Muthukumarana, S., Schwarz, C.J. and Swartz, T.B. (2008). Bayesian analysis of mark-recapture data with travel time-dependent survival probabilities (with discussion) . The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 36(1), 5-28.

• Swartz, T.B. (2007). A graduate course in statistics in sport . Invited paper in the Proceedings of the 56th Session of the International Statistical Institute, Lisboa.

• Summers, A.E., Swartz, T.B. and Lockhart, R.A. (2007). Optimal drafting in hockey pools . In Statistical Thinking in Sports (Jim Albert and Ruud H. Koning, editors), 249-262.

• Swartz, T.B. (2007). Improved draws for highland dance . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, 3(1), Article 2.

• Gill, P.S. and Swartz, T.B. (2007). Bayesian analysis of dyadic data . American Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences: Special volume on Modern Advances in Bayesian Theory and Applications, 27(1&2) 73-92.

• Gill, P.S., Swartz, T.B. and Treschow, M. (2007). A stylometric analysis of King Alfred's literary works . Journal of Applied Statistics, 34(10), 1251-1258.

• Swartz, T.B., Gill, P.S., Beaudoin, D. and de Silva, B.M. (2006). Optimal batting orders in one-day cricket . Computers and Operations Research, 33(7), 1939-1950.

• Evans, M., Guttman, I. and Swartz, T.B. (2006). Optimality and computations for relative surprise inferences . The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 34(1), 113-129.

• Yang, T.Y. and Swartz, T.B. (2005). Applications of binary segmentation to the estimation of quantal response curves and spatial intensity . Biometrical Journal, 47(4), 489-501.

• Gill, P.S., Banneheka, S.G. and Swartz, T.B. (2005). Tests concerning equicorrelation matrices with grouped normal data . Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 34(4), 857-873.

• Swartz, T.B., Haitovsky, Y., Vexler, A. and Yang, T. (2004). Bayesian identifiability and misclassification in multinomial data . The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 32(3), 285-302.

• Gill, P.S. and Swartz, T.B. (2004). Bayesian analysis of directed graphs data with applications to social networks . Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C, 53(2), 249-260. Associated WinBUGS code for advice data.

• Insley, R., Mok, L. and Swartz, T.B. (2004). Issues related to sports gambling . The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 46, 219-232.

• Yang, T.Y. and Swartz, T.B. (2004). A two-stage Bayesian model for predicting winners in major league baseball . Journal of Data Science, 2, 61-73.

• Beaudoin, D. and Swartz, T.B. (2003). The best batsmen and bowlers in one-day cricket . South African Statistical Journal, 37(2), 203-222.

• Swartz, T.B. (2003). Bayesian modeling and computations in final-offer arbitration. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 21(1), 74-79.

• Villegas, C., Swartz, T.B. and Martinez, C.J. (2002). On the probability of a model . Test, 11, 413-438.

• Gill, P.S. and Swartz, T.B. (2001). Statistical analyses for round robin interaction data. The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 29(2), 321-331.

• de Silva, B.M., Pond, G.R. and Swartz, T.B. (2001). Estimation of the magnitude of victory in one-day cricket. The Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 43, 259-268.

• Evans, M. and Swartz, T.B. (2001). Stratified sampling with spherically symmetric importance samplers. Data Analysis from Statistical Foundations: A Festchrift in Honour of the 75th birthday of D.A.S. Fraser, ed. A.K. Md. E. Saleh, Nova Science Publishers Inc., Huntington, New York, 245-256.

• Bingham, D.R. and Swartz, T.B. (2000). Equitable handicapping in golf. The American Statistician, 54(3), 170-177.

• Swartz, T.B. (1999). Nonparametric goodness-of-fit. Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 28(12), 2821-2841.

• Heard, A.D. and Swartz, T.B. (1999). Extended voting measures. The Canadian Journal of Statistics, 27(1), 177-186.

• Dey, D.K., Gelfand, A.E., Swartz, T.B. and Vlachos, P.K. (1998). Simulation based model checking for hierarchical models. Test, 7, 325-346.

• Evans, M. and Swartz, T.B. (1998). Higher order envelope random variate generators. Manuscript.

• Evans, M. and Swartz, T.B. (1998). An algorithm for the approximation of integrals with exact error bounds. Manuscript.

• Evans, M. and Swartz, T.B. (1998). Random variable generation using concavity properties of transformed densities. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 7, 514-528. (graphs missing)

• Heard, A.D. and Swartz, T.B. (1998). Empirical Banzhaf indices. Public Choice, 97, 701-707.

• de Silva, B. and Swartz, T.B. (1997). Winning the coin toss and the home team advantage in one-day international cricket matches. New Zealand Statistician, 32(2), 16-22.

• Evans, M., Gilula, Z., Guttman, I. and Swartz, T.B. (1997). Bayesian analysis of stochastically ordered distributions of categorical variables. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, 208-214. (graphs missing)

• Evans, M. and Swartz, T.B. (1996). Bayesian integration using multivariate Student importance sampling. Computing Science and Statistics, 27, eds. M.M. Meyer and J.L. Rosenberger, Interface Foundation of North America, Inc., Fairfax Station, VA 22039-7460, 456-461.

• Evans, M., Guttman, I., Haitovsky, Y. and Swartz, T.B. (1995). Bayesian analysis of binary data subject to misclassification. In Bayesian Statistics and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of Arnold Zellner (Berry, D., Geweke, J. and Chaloner, K.M. editors), 67-77. (graphs missing)

• Evans, M. and Swartz, T.B. (1995). Methods for approximating integrals in Statistics with special emphasis on Bayesian integration. Statistical Science, 10(3), 254-272. Discussion in 1996, 11, 54-64.

• Evans, M. and Swartz, T.B. (1994). Distribution theory and inference for polynomial-normal densities. Communications in Statistics: Theory and Methods, 23(4), 1123-1148. (graphs missing)